Expert explains the reason of China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index falling in April
The National Bureau of Statistics website published an article on April 30, in which Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets the China Purchasing Managers' Index in April 2025.
Zhao said that in April , the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.0% , down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively , continuing to remain in the expansion range.
Affected by factors such as the drastic changes in the external environment, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell in April , but related industries such as high-tech manufacturing continued to expand, and the production and operation of manufacturing enterprises mainly focusing on domestic sales were generally stable. From a global perspective, the manufacturing boom of major economies is generally in the contraction range. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI released by the U.S. Supply Management Association in March was 49.0% , and the preliminary values of the manufacturing PMIs of the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan in April released by relevant institutions were all below the critical point. So China will implement the strategy made during the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on April 25 , coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and respond to the uncertainty of the drastic changes in the external environment with the certainty of high-quality development.
The link to the webpage is here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/sjjd/202504/t20250430_1959518.html
The English translation is the following:
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell in April
Non-manufacturing business activity index continues to expand
——Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets the China Purchasing Managers' Index in April 2025
On April 30, 2025 , the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center, gave an interpretation.
In April , the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.0% , down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively , continuing to remain in the expansion range.
1. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell back
In April , affected by factors such as the high base formed by the rapid growth of manufacturing in the previous period and the drastic changes in the external environment, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0% , falling below the critical point.
(I) Both production and demand slowed down. The production index and new order index were 49.8% and 49.2% respectively , down 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points from the previous month. Both manufacturing production and market demand declined. From the perspective of industry, the two indexes of agricultural and sideline food processing, food and wine, beverage, refined tea, and medicine industries were 53.0% or above, and production and demand were released quickly; the two indexes of textiles, textile clothing, and metal products industries declined significantly, both below the critical point.
(II) High-tech manufacturing continued to improve. From the perspective of key industries, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing was 51.5% , significantly higher than the overall level of manufacturing. Its production index and new order index were both at 52.0 % and above, and high-tech manufacturing continued to develop well. The PMIs of equipment manufacturing, consumer goods industry and high-energy-consuming industry were 49.6% , 49.4% and 47.7% respectively , down 2.4 , 0.6 and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level fell to varying degrees.
(III) Price index declined. Affected by factors such as insufficient market demand and the recent continuous decline in prices of some bulk commodities, the main raw material purchase price index and ex-factory price index were 47.0% and 44.8% respectively, down 2.8 and 3.1 percentage points from the previous month , and the overall level of manufacturing market prices declined.
(IV) The expectation index remained expanding. The production and operation activity expectation index was 52.1% , continuing to be in the expansion range. Some industry enterprises have strong confidence in the recent development, among which the production and operation activity expectation index of the food, wine, beverage, refined tea, automobile, railway, ship, aerospace equipment and other industries were all in the high prosperity range of 58.0% and above.
2. Non-manufacturing business activity index continued to expand
In April , the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4% , down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point. The non-manufacturing industry as a whole continued to expand.
(I) The prosperity of the service industry continued to expand. The business activity index of the service industry was 50.1% , down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point. From the perspective of industry, the business activity index of aviation transportation, telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services, insurance and other industries were all above 55.0% , with a relatively high prosperity range, and the total business volume grew rapidly; the business activity index of water transportation, capital market services and other industries fell below the critical point. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 56.4% , which continued to be in a relatively high prosperity range, and most service industry companies had strong confidence in market development.
(II) The construction industry continued to expand. The business activity index of the construction industry was 51.9% , down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and still in the expansion range. Among them, the business activity index of the civil engineering construction industry was 60.9% , up 6.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that as the construction of engineering projects in various places progressed in an orderly manner, the progress of civil engineering construction was accelerated. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 53.8% , and construction companies remained optimistic about the recent market development expectations.
3. The composite PMI output index continued to be in the expansion range
In April , the composite PMI output index was 50.2% , down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating that China's overall production and business activities of enterprises have maintained expansion. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that constitute the composite PMI output index were 49.8% and 50.4% respectively .
Overall, the composite PMI output index has been above the critical point since January 2023. China 's overall economic output has continued to expand, and the long -term positive fundamentals have not changed. Affected by factors such as the drastic changes in the external environment, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell in April , but related industries such as high-tech manufacturing continued to expand, and the production and operation of manufacturing enterprises mainly focusing on domestic sales were generally stable. From a global perspective, there are no winners in trade wars and tariff wars. Affected by the increasing uncertainty in the trade environment, the manufacturing boom of major economies is generally in the contraction range. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI released by the U.S. Supply Management Association in March was 49.0% , and the preliminary values of the manufacturing PMIs of the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan in April released by relevant institutions were all below the critical point. In the next stage, we must conscientiously implement the strategy made in the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on April 25 , coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and respond to the uncertainty of the drastic changes in the external environment with the certainty of high-quality development.
